By Mark Huffman
ConsumerAffairs.Com
October 8, 2009
Since the
economy slid into a recession, air travel has been less miserable, with
smaller crowds in the airport and sometimes flights with a few empty
seats. But the misery could return next year with an improving economy,
according to a study by the Brookings Institution.
The Washington-based think tank has completed an analysis at the national and metropolitan levels of commercial air travel patterns between 1990 and 2009. It found that U.S. air travel fell in 2008 for the first time since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. That drop, while harmful to the airlines, made it a little more comfortable for passengers to fly.
Strong economic growth helped American airports increase their passenger and flight levels by over 60 percent from 1990 to 2008, tripling population growth. It has been partly that growth that has been responsible for consumer heartburn.
However, residents are traveling less since the current economic downturn, producing sustained reductions in passengers and flights since September 2008 and June 2008, according to the analysis.
The study also found that nearly 99 percent of all U.S. air passengers arrive or depart from one of the 100 largest metropolitan areas, with the vast majority of travel concentrated in 26 metropolitan hubs.
Between April 2008 and March 2009, 26 metropolitan areas captured nearly three-quarters of all domestic travelers, while 20 of these metros landed 94 percent of all international passengers. These extreme shares make these metropolitan hubs the critical links in the nation's aviation system and reinforce their role as major centers of tourism and commerce. It also makes them the most crowded and, for consumers, usually the most unpleasant.
The study also suggests that part of the overcrowding could be alleviated if passengers on shorter trips had other attractive transportation options. Half of the country's flights are routes of less than 500 miles, and the busiest corridors travel between the metropolitan hubs.
Corridors of no more than 500 miles constituted half of all flights and carried 30 percent of all passengers in the most recent twelve month period starting April 2008. In fact, the metro Los Angeles/San Francisco corridor, stretching 347 miles, is the second busiest corridor in the country. Meanwhile, the most popular corridors operated between the 26 metropolitan hubs.
Its not surprising then that the 26 metropolitan hubs and other large metropolitan areas host a concentration of national delays-and the situation is worsening over time, the report warns. The concentration within the 100 largest metropolitan areas was especially troubling with congestion-related delays as well as those lasting over two hours.
Within the 26 domestic hubs, six experienced worse-than-average delays for both arrivals and departures: New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Miami, Atlanta, and San Francisco.
The current economic recession caused carriers to reduce flight levels, which then improved on-time performance in the immediate term. However, the return of economic growth will resume the boost in travelers, a concomitant decline in on-time performance, and the hyper-concentration of U.S. air travel within major metropolitan areas and among flights traveling short distances, the report warns.
In other words, if you think air travel is bad now, just wait.
"To ensure that the commercial aviation system runs efficiently while simultaneously improving its environmental record, policymakers must focus aviation and other modal investments on the metropolitan hubs and short-haul corridors, thus strengthening the performance of the our nation's major economic centers," the report concluded.
