April 6, 2009
It was just a few short years ago that automotive and business reporters were swallowing hard and writing that Toyota might overtake General Motors as the world's No. 1 automaker. It didn't take long for that to happen. Toyota officially took the title in April 2007 and now, coming up fast is Volkswagen.
Market research company R. L. Polk Germany today predicted that Volkswagen will take over the No. 2 spot this year, leaving GM to eat its dust.
GM is already on life support, subsisting on short-term U.S. government loans while a White House task force tries to get the troubled automaker back on the track.
Of course, no one is exactly burning up the asphalt as the global economic downturn has everyone shifting into their lower gears, if not reverse. Polk said it expects global production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles to fall 19 percent, or two million units, to 52.8 million vehicles this year -- the lowest output since 1998.
GM will suffer a 31 percent drop in production this year, Polk predicts, while VW will likely only see a slide of only 15 percent. For that, VW can thank its relatively low penetration in the U.S. market, where sales are off 38 percent through March.
Polk doesn't think the race is over, though. Global car output should leap ahead in 2010 with growth rates over the next two years that lead to a record production volume of more than 70 million vehicles in 2012, Polk analysts speculated.
