Based on Wal-Mart's extraordinary domination of Christmas shopping this season, C. Britt Beemer, CEO and Founder of America's Research Group has raised his annual Christmas retail forecast today to minus 2.8% from minus 3.5%.
That's great if you're Wal-Mart. Not so good if you're anyone else.
According to data from the fifth America's Research Group/UBS Christmas 2008 Survey, almost two thirds of American consumers shopped at Wal-Mart last week compared with 41.3% last year.
"Wal-Mart had as many shoppers this weekend as JCPenney, Sears, Target and Toys R Us combined," Beemer said. "The unheard of domination of the retail industry this Christmas coupled with the fact that consumers are seeing and taking advantage of 60- to 70 percent-off sales leads me to raise my forecast," he added.
Of those consumers who shopped this past weekend, most flocked to Wal-Mart:
• Wal-Mart 66.2 percent
• JCPenney 18.1 percent
• Sears 19.6 percent
• Target 17.9 percent
• Toys R Us 12.1 percent
• Best Buy 10.4 percent
In the list of top five gifts, children's clothes had a substantial increase as parents made up for not buying much in the back-to-school shopping period this year. Gift cards decreased to 12.4 percent this year from 19.4 percent in 2007.
A "home-run" toy has emerged this year with 32.2 percent of those purchasing gifts for boys buying a Bukugan toy.
Consumers remain extremely conservative this Christmas. More shoppers will stay within their budget. In addition, 36.7 percent of shoppers say they are spending less this year, the highest number in seven years, the first time the question was asked in ARG Christmas surveys.
Compared with past Christmases, more consumers say they have finished Christmas shopping. More consumers also expect to finish next weekend compared with previous years -- 43.3 percent in 2008 compared with 33.9 percent in 2007. Parents are on-track with 44.5 percent saying they have finished shopping for their children versus 44.8 percent last year.
Still, 40.9 percent of consumers are waiting for more 50 percent-off sales to finish their Christmas shopping and another 36.6% say they are waiting for bigger bargains yet at 60 percent-off sales.
On a positive note, fewer shoppers said that had to "wait in line" or "got no help" with only 11.9 percent unhappy about the service they received. This is the lowest number in the six years since the question was asked in ARG Christmas surveys.
Shopping levels over last weekend were equal to last year — 48.0 percent in 2008 compared with 48.8 percent last year. 10.6 percent shopped only during the week, 21.8 percent shopped only during the weekend, and 23.6 percent shopped both during the week and on the weekend.
