August 8, 2008
The real estate market showed some signs of life in June. The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index rose 5.3 percent to 89.0. While that's a healthy gain, it remains 12.3 percent below June 2007 when it stood at 101.4.
Analysts said buyers are moving on foreclosures and other distressed properties, and also taking advantage of new provisions provided through the recently passed housing stimulus bill.
"The vacillation of data from one month to the next indicates a housing market in transition," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR. "The rise in pending home sales was broad-based with all four regions showing gains. This is welcome news because a rise in contract activity is necessary for an overall housing recovery. With a tax credit now available to first-time home buyers, increases in home sales could be sustained with the momentum carrying into 2009."
The PHSI in the South jumped 9.3 percent to 92.4 in June but is 16.6 percent below June 2007. In the West, the index rose 4.6 percent to 101.0 in June but remains 1.7 percent below a year ago. The index in the Northeast increased 3.4 percent to 79.6 but is 15.4 percent below June 2007. In the Midwest, the index rose 1.3 percent in June to 79.6 but is 13.3 percent below a year ago.
Sales gains have been consistently strong in recent months in Sacramento, Calif.; Las Vegas; and Ft. Myers, Fla., where affordability conditions have greatly improved. The pickup in contract signings appears to be broadening with many affordable markets in mid-America now showing year-over-year gains, including Columbus, Ohio; Charleston, W.V.; Oklahoma City; and Colorado Springs, Colo. Pending sales have fallen significantly in Texas markets and in the Pacific Northwest -- two regions with very strong local economies.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said the housing stimulus package will provide long-term relief. "Provisions to stem foreclosures are helpful, but a greater lift to the economy should come from higher mortgage limits, enhancements to the FHA loan program and the first-time home buyer tax credit," he said.
"These are excellent tools that will help buyers get into the market to take advantage of the unprecedented drop in home prices in many areas, as well as a wide selection of inventory, to make an investment in their future," Gaylord said.
With roughly 2.5 million first-time home buyers taking advantage of the temporary tax credit, existing-home sales are likely to rise 7.0 percent to 5.51 million in 2009 from a expected total of 5.15 million this year. Yun said home prices did not fall as much as anticipated in the second quarter.
"Buyers entering the hardest-hit markets, in some cases with multiple-bid offers, may have put a floor on prices," he said. "In addition, rising commodity prices and higher construction costs have resulted in a very unusual market today with existing-home prices being less than replacement building costs in some areas. Home prices are projected to increase 3 to 6 percent in 2009."
"Builders need to further cut production to help trim inventory. However, new-home sales are expected to bottom around the second quarter of next year with slight gains in the second half of 2009," Yun said.
New-home sales are forecast to drop 8.8 percent to 464,000 in 2009 from 509,000 this year. Housing starts, including multifamily units, should fall 8.8 percent next year to 795,000 from 960,000 in 2008, the group said.
